Divergence trades represent a clear chart pattern of slowing price direction. At the same time they are countertrend trades and have a higher degree of risk. Before the October 1987 stock plunge, there were numerous divergence signals in the S&P, both long-term and short-term, and many traders posted losses trying to sell what might have been the top of the market. Most gave up before the decline. If, in fact, the greatest opportunities come when the divergence is strong, that is, the decline in the momentum peaks is large. then the best results will come from entering a short position, then holding that short when a long trend turns to a short one. By entering the trend trade early (and exiting the old long position), a divergence can become a large profit rather than a small one.
Posts Tagged ‘market’
Converting a Divergence into a Trend Trade
Sunday, December 6th, 2009The economic way of thinking about government
Thursday, December 3rd, 2009Given its monopoly power over the legitimate use of force, people have a tendency to believe that the government, particularly a democratic representative government, can solve all types of problems. Further, if things do not go well, people tend to think that it is be- cause the “wrong” people won the last election. Public-choice analysis suggests that the problem is more fundamental: there is sometimes a conflict between winning elections and following sound policies. For some types of activities, there is reason to believe that the political action that will help get one elected will, at the same time, reduce income lev-els and living standards.
Both the market and the political process have shortcomings.
Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of both sectors is important if we are going to improve our current economic institutions. When the government protects property rights, enforces contracts, and provides a stable monetary environment, economic prosperity is more likely to ensue. The basic problem, however, is how a society can obtain the benefits of the protective functions of government and at the same time constrain it to those activities where it is a productive force.
MARKET TIMING
Thursday, November 12th, 2009A second basic investment decision you must make is whether you will try to buy and sell in anticipation of the future direction of the overall market. For example, you might move money into the stock market when you thought it was going to rise, and move money out when you thought it was going to fall. This activity is called market timing. Some investors very actively move money around to try to time short-term market movements; others are less active but still try to time longer-term movements. A fully passive strategy is one in which no attempt is made to time the market.
Market timing certainly seems like a reasonable thing to do; after all, why leave money in an investment if you expect it to decrease in value? You might be surprised that a common recommendation is that investors not try to time the market. As we discuss in more detail in a later series of posts, the reason is that successful market timing is, to put it mildly, very difficult. To outperform a completely passive strategy, you must be able to very accurately predict the future; if you make even a small number of bad calls, you will likely never catch up.